2018 Hypothetical Atlantic hurricane season (Version One)
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was a destructive and deadly season. It was slightly above-average season in terms of ACE, and an average season in terms of named storms. A total of 15 tropical cyclones formed, with 13 becoming named storms, 8 becoming hurricanes, and 3 becoming major hurricanes. Originally predicted to be somewhat below-average due to a possible El Nino, the season's activity surpassed that of what was predicted. The season's strongest, deadliest, and most destructive storm was Hurricane Gordon. Peaking as a high-end Category 4 hurricane, Gordon caused heavy damage, estimated at $16 billion USD, in Jamaica and Cuba, as well as extensive loss of life, especially in Jamaica. The second major hurricane, Isaac, was a deadly Category 3 hurricane that caused 571 fatalities in the Caribbean Islands, as well as $8 billion USD in damages. Hurricane Leslie caused severe damage, totaling to $5.6 billion in the Carolinas, despite only being a Category 1 hurricane. The season's third and final major hurricane, Hurricane Kirk, stayed out in the open Atlantic Ocean and did not affect land. Seasonal forecasts Ahead of and during the season, several meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), Coastal Carolina University (CCU), Colorado State University (CSU), and North Carolina State University (NCSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in past seasons (especially the previous season) and the possible development of an El Nino. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units. Pre-season forecasts The TSR issued their first forecast for the 2018 season on December 12th, who anticipated three possible scenarios. The most likely scenario was that an El Nino would develop, resulting in a somewhat below-average season. Another scenario was an average season due to the lack of an El Nino or La Nina as well as higher wind shear than the previous year. The last scenario was another hyperactive season, possibly even more active than 2017. The TSR issued their first outlook for the 2018 season on December 15th, predicting that activity would be about 30-40% below the 1950-2015 average or about 20% below the 2005-2015 average. In detail, they called for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 89. Three months later, the TSR upped their predictions to 13 named storms, but kept the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes the same. The CSU predicted on April 2nd that the season would be a near-average season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes with an ACE index of around 95. On April 20th, UKMO released their forecasts, anticipating a below-average season with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The NCSU published their outlook 2 days later, predicting an above average season with 12-15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. The NOAA's first outlook was released on May 29th. They stated that there was a 35% chance of the season producing 12-17 named storms with a more likely outcome that the season would be an average season. The CSU upped their predictions to 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes due to the decreasing likelihood of an El Nino developing. Mid-season outlooks With the exception of the TSR, all forecasting centers upped their predictions to 14 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes to include Tropical Storm Alberto. Subsequently, the numbers were increased to accommodate Hurricane Beryl. The UKMO decreased their forecast numbers again to 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes on July 9th. On August 12th, NOAA updated their forecasts, calling for an above-average season with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Seasonal summary ImageSize = width:800 height:240 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/06/2018 till:01/01/2019 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/07/2018 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph_(0–62_km/h)_(TD) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117 km/h)_(TS) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(119–153_km/h)_(C1) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph_(154-177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-130_mph_(178-209-km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_131-155_mph_(210-249_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_>=156_mph_(>=250_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:04/06/2018 till:09/06/2018 color:TS text:"Alberto (TS)" from:28/06/2018 till:04/07/2018 color:C1 text:"Beryl (C1)" from:15/07/2018 till:19/07/2018 color:TS text:"Chris (TS)" from:30/07/2018 till:02/08/2018 color:TS text:"Debby (TS)" from:04/08/2018 till:12/08/2018 color:C2 text:"Ernesto (C2)" from:16/08/2018 till:21/08/2018 color:C1 text:"Florence (C1)" from:25/08/2018 till:01/09/2018 color:C4 text:"Gordon (C4)" from:03/09/2018 till:08/09/2018 color:TS text:"Helene (TS)" from:05/09/2018 till:06/09/2018 color:TD text:"Nine (TD)" from:08/09/2018 till:10/09/2018 color:TD text:"Ten (TD)" barset:break from:16/09/2018 till:24/09/2018 color:C3 text:"Isaac (C3)" from:20/09/2018 till:25/09/2018 color:C2 text:"Joyce (C2)" from:02/10/2018 till:17/10/2018 color:C3 text:"Kirk (C3)" from:24/10/2018 till:30/10/2018 color:C1 text:"Leslie (C1)" from:07/11/2018 till:10/11/2018 color:TS text:"Michael (TS)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/06/2018 till:01/07/2018 text:June from:01/07/2018 till:01/08/2018 text:July from:01/08/2018 till:01/09/2018 text:August from:01/09/2018 till:01/10/2018 text:September from:01/10/2018 till:01/11/2018 text:October from:01/11/2018 till:01/12/2018 text:November from:01/12/2018 till:01/01/2019 text:December TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(617,30) text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" Systems Tropical Storm Alberto Late on June 3rd, a tropical wave with well-defined convection entered the Caribbean Sea. It gradually strengthened overnight, and based on satellite imagery indicating a well-defined center of circulation, it was upgraded to Tropical Depression One at 06:00 UTC on June 4th. After another 5 hours, the depression held sufficient strength to be classified as Tropical Storm Alberto, the first storm of the 2018 season. Alberto tracked generally westwards across the Caribbean Sea, strengthening slowly. On June 6th, Alberto reached peak intensity with wind speeds of 55 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 1000 millibars. The storm maintained this intensity at a steady rate as it turned slightly more northwestwards while located north of Venezuela. The storm caused scattered showers over the northern coast of South America, but remained a little disorganized due to light easterly wind shear. Alberto weakened slightly and its wind speeds fell below 50 miles per hour on June 8th, turning westwards again towards Central America. Heavy rains led to flooding and mudslides in Honduras and northern Nicaragua, which caused $7 million USD in damages and claimed the lives of five people. Alberto rapidly weakened over land, becoming a remnant low over Central America on June 9th. However, Alberto's mid-level circulation crossed into the Pacific, leading to the formation of Tropical Storm Carlotta on June 11th. Hurricane Beryl A tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on June 27th. Strong, but disorganized convection was reported by a Hurricane Hunters aircraft, but wind speeds and the presence of a warm core allowed the wave to be upgraded to a tropical depression early the next day. The depression steadily strengthened as it moved northwest, and it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl at 12:00 UTC the same day after the depression became well-defined and more organized. By June 30th, Beryl had strengthened to hurricane strength and reached peak intensity with wind speeds recorded at 80 miles per hour and a minimum barometric pressure of 982 millibars. A subtropical ridge of high pressure pushed Beryl northeast towards the Mediterranean Sea region as it weakened below hurricane strength mid-day on July 1st. By that time Beryl had acquired characteristics reminiscent of a subtropical cyclone, and the NHC reclassified it accordingly. On July 3rd, just before weakening to an extratropical low, Beryl made landfall as a subtropical storm on the south coast of Portugal, bringing heavy rain and gusty conditions. Beryl rapidly weakened as it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone at 08:00 UTC, continuing to move northeast before dissipating over Spain on July 4th. Tropical Storm Chris A large trough of low pressure was persistent over the Gulf of Mexico in mid-July. After nearly 3 days of minimal change, the low finally strengthened into Tropical Storm Chris on July 15th, although it later was thought to have become a tropical depression approximately 7 hours earlier. Chris slowly tracked northeast towards Florida as it continued to slowly strengthen. While Chris did not struggle with wind shear, some dry air over the Gulf of Mexico inhibited strengthening, and the storm stayed at a steady state with winds of 60 miles per hour. On July 17th, Chris came ashore the Gulf coast of Florida, causing widespread heavy rains and dangerous swells across the state and neighboring Alabama and Georgia. The large storm steadily weakened as it progressed further inland, slowing down substantially. Four tornadoes, one of EF1 intensity were reported in Florida, and another of EF0 intensity in Georgia that spawned from the storm, causing 2 fatalities. A further 3 fatalities occurred in the coastal regions of Florida, and damage was reported to be $1.2 billion, costly for a storm of this strength. Chris rode the coastline up north where it rapidly began to weaken over land and finally dissipated on July 19th over the Virginia coast. Tropical Storm Debby A well-defined tropical wave exited the west African coast on July 29th. Based on surface wind speeds estimated at 30 miles per hour, the wave was upgraded to Tropical Depression Four early the next day. The depression quickly strengthened and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby 4 hours later. Although wind shear was weak, Debby struggled with a dry air mass as the small storm was still near the African coast. Strengthening yet persisted however as Debby tracked northwest and reached its peak intensity with wind speeds up to 50 miles per hour on August 1st. The storm began to weaken as it encountered wind shear in the middle Atlantic, and was downgraded to a tropical depression on August 2nd. Debby continued to quickly track northward as it continued to weaken. A Hurricane Hunters aircraft confirmed that convection was minimal, and Debby was downgraded to an open wave late that same day. 'Hurricane Ernesto' On August 2nd, a tropical wave over the open Atlantic began to organize, but had failed to strengthen significantly over the next 36 hours. Then, on August 4th, a sudden burst of convection caused the wave to rapidly organize and strengthen, and it was upgraded to a tropical depression, then a tropical storm, receiving the name Ernesto from the NHC, on August 4th. The storm continued to rapidly intensify as it continued northwest towards Bermuda. Ernesto's strength equaled a Category 2 hurricane on August 5th as it reached peak intensity. The hurricane weakened after an eye wall replacement cycle, but resumed gradual strengthening shortly after. By August 7th, while around 200 miles east of Bermuda, Ernesto peaked as a Category 2 hurricane yet again with winds reaching 110 miles per hour. The storm then turned northward towards Greenland as it began to weaken. It's large and well-defined eye became less defined and ragged as Ernesto weakened back to a minimal Category 1 hurricane. The system began to acquire subtropical characteristics on August 9th, but was not reclassified as it began extratropical transition. It turned north-northeast after completing extratropical transition on August 10th, still packing hurricane-force winds. Gusty conditions were felt in southeast Greenland as Ernesto passed by before finally dissipating on August 12th over the far northern Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Florence In an unusual occurrence, a tropical depression developed overland in Senegal on August 16th and began to track nearly due west. The NHC upgraded this depression to Tropical Storm Florence on August 17th after it emerged into the Atlantic Ocean. The unusual rapid strengthening of the storm caused the NHC to initiate a hurricane warning in Cape Verde, an area typically not affected by hurricanes. On August 18th, Florence strengthened into a hurricane and made landfall in Cape Verde at peak intensity, with winds of up to 75 miles per hour. While rain was not as big an issue, storm surge produced waves up to 19 feet tall which lashed the coastline with great strength. A crew of 6 aboard a fishing boat died after their boat was capsized by a series of 21 foot waves. This was the second time that Cape Verde was impacted by a hurricane, the first being Hurricane Fred in 2015. As Florence emerged into the Atlantic Ocean again, it turned southwest, an unusual trajectory that was expected to push the hurricane past the equator. However, it turned northeast after a high-pressure system moved in from the southwest, pushing Florence back towards Cape Verde. The erratic movement of the hurricane, which by August 19th had weakened back to a tropical storm, made it difficult to predict. But enviormental condtions became very unfavorable for sustainment of a tropical cyclone, and Florence rapidly weakened on August 20th as it turned west and dissipated on August 21st. Hurricane Gordon A trough of low pressure interacting with a tropical wave produced an enhanced area of low pressure with persistent convection on August 25th, and a tropical depression formed at 16:00 UTC. While in the northern Caribbean Sea, the depression encountered a very favorable area for development, and it began to rapidly intensify after it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon on August 26th. In just 22 hours, Gordon strengthened from a tropical storm to a high-end Category 3 major hurricane, and warnings were issued for Cuba and Jamaica nearly 3 days in advance. Gordon tracked north as it continued to strengthen, becoming a Category 4 hurricane early on August 27th. At 10:00 UTC on August 28th, Hurricane Gordon made landfall in Jamaica at peak intensity with wind speeds exceeding 145 miles per hour. The island was pounded by strong winds and torrential rainfall, which led to mudslides and widespread flooding that caused $2 billion USD in damages. The storm also proved to be very deadly, causing 1,479 fatalities in Jamaica alone, and a further 300 occured in Cuba as the storm passed over the island as a strong Category 3 hurricane, causing $9 billion in damages from mudslides that buried more than a dozen villages in the mountains of Cuba. Gordon rapidly weakened back to a tropical storm over the mountains of inland Cuba, but torrential rainfall continued to ruin farm and cropland across the entire island. The storm also had slowed down substantially after it emerged into the Atlantic Ocean on August 30th. Turning northwest towards Florida, a weakening Gordon brought some heavy rain to the western Bahamas before it moved ashore the Atlantic coastline of Florida. It began to rapidly weaken overland, $4 billion USD in damages in the United States before becoming extratropical over Georgia late on August 31st. Gordon's remnants continued northwest before they dissipated over northern Alabama on September 1st. Several member countries of the United Nations, including the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Mexico aided with reconstruction after Gordon had devastated the Caribbean Islands of Jamaica and Cuba. Tropical Storm Helene A tropical wave to the north of Hispaniola began to show signs of organization on September 2nd, but its relatively quick northward movement prevented significant development. By the next day, however, a reconnaissance flight reported closed circulation and tropical storm-force winds. It became Tropical Storm Helene at 08:00 UTC that day. Helene tracked northwest towards the Florida coast, and was expected to make landfall near Cape Canaveral, but it instead turned northeast out to sea. The storm still caused dangerous rip currents from Florida to New England, however across its journey up the United States east coast. Helene continued to strengthen as it reached peak intensity with wind speeds of 50 miles per hour on September 5th while off the coast of North Carolina. Thereafter, it began to weaken as it continued northeast towards New England. The storm began to take on frontal characteristics shortly after peak intensity, and Helene was declared a post-tropical storm on September 7th while approaching southern Maine. Helene moved ashore in Portland, ME at 16:00 UTC, bringing heavy rain and strong gales south to Rhode Island. Helene's extratropical remnants continued to rapidly trek north until they dissipated on September 8th over the Labrador Sea. Tropical Depression Nine On September 5th, a tropical wave moving across the Gulf of Mexico began to show signs of organization. The NHC monitored it for possible development, and at 20:00 UTC it was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine. Tracking southwest towards Veracruz, Mexico, the depression only strengthened slightly, and then began to weaken amidst a dry and stable environment. The depression brought heavy rains to Veracruz, but did not cause damage as it rapidly dissipated over Mexico late on September 6th. The remnants of the depression did cross over into the Pacific Ocean on September 7th, but they had almost no convection remaining and did not re-organize to become a tropical cyclone again. Tropical Depression Ten The season's tenth tropical depression originated from a tropical wave that crossed the African coast on September 4th. The wave tracked west across the tropical Atlantic as it began to acquire moisture, prompting the NHC to designate it as a potential tropical cyclone. The invest was then upgraded to a tropical depression on September 8th based on surface-level wind reports at 35 miles per hour and a warm core of circulation. The system continued to track west, turning northwest on September 9th, leaving the Leeward Islands out of danger. As the depression was initially expected to strengthen, a tropical storm watch was issued for the islands, but was discontinued that day after Tropical Depression Ten turned northwest, away from the islands. The depression then entered a stable environment on September 10th, and degenerated to an open wave at 12:00 UTC that day. Hurricane Isaac On September 16th, after nearly a week of inactivity, activity resumed with the designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eleven, located in the tropical Atlantic at the time. The system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaac at 16:00 UTC after a hurricane hunters aircraft reported tropical storm-force winds and a minimum pressure of 1002 mbar. Shortly thereafter, Isaac began to rapidly intensify as it approached the Leeward Islands. It became a Category 1 hurricane on September 17th, and a hurricane warning was issued for Guadeloupe and Dominica. Tracking northwest, Isaac continued to show no end to its strengthening, becoming a Category 3 major hurricane at 12:00 UTC. However, this strengthening process slowed substantially by September 18th while Isaac was on the verge of becoming a Category 4 hurricane. Isaac would maintain its strength as a strong Category 3 hurricane for several days, making landfall in Guadeloupe on September 19th. More than $1 billion USD in damages was caused throughout the Leeward Islands, and 102 people died from Isaac's passage over the islands. The hurricane continued northwest to strike Hispaniola, causing mudslides, flooding, and torrential rainfall that killed 459 people and caused $3 billion USD in damages. A hurricane warning was issued for the entire state of Florida as Isaac, now a Category 2 hurricane, continued its track northwest towards the states. The storm had grown very large as it approached Florida, causing bad weather in the Bahamas as it passed near the islands on its way to the United States. On September 22nd, Hurricane Isaac made landfall near Jupiter Inlet, FL. Storm surge up to 7 feet caused widespread flooding across the state's east coast. Economic losses were estimated at $5 billion, and 10 people lost their lives in the floodwaters, including 2 members of the United States coast guard. A weakening Isaac continued inland and continued to dump heavy rains across Florida and neighboring Alabama and Georgia. The storm rapidly weakened over the Appalachian Mountains before dissipating on September 24th over southern Tennessee. Hurricane Joyce On September 20th, a tropical depression formed from a weak tropical wave in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions gradually became favorable for development, and the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Joyce on September 21st. Tracking northwest towards the border between Texas and Mexico, Joyce continued to rapidly strengthen, becoming a hurricane late that day. A small but powerful system, Joyce reached peak intensity on September 22nd with wind speeds of up to 110 mph. Late on September 23rd, Joyce made landfall just south of Saint Padre Island. The coastline was lashed with strong winds reaching to 100 miles per hour, and major flooding was prevalent across the entire island. Despite the strong effects in Texas, damage was less than predicted at only $560 million USD. 3 people lost their lives from Joyce as it progressed further inland, rapidly weakening. Joyce had weakened to a tropical depression on September 24th as it continued north towards Oklahoma. Finally, on September 25th, Joyce dissipated over northern Texas, leaving behind moderate to heavy rainfall in its wake. Hurricane Kirk A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic Ocean on September 30th. The wave strengthened as it tracked northwest and was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen on October 2nd. Under favorable conditions, the disturbance greatly organized into Tropical Storm Kirk, and it began to rapidly intensify. Kirk became a hurricane on October 4th, and the next day became the third major hurricane of the 2018 season. Kirk moved erratically over the open Atlantic Ocean, turning east, then northwest, and then northeast as it tracked slowly through the Atlantic Ocean. Kirk maintained its strength as a Category 3 hurricane for several days before it finally began to steadily weaken over cool waters on October 10th. The hurricane's movement slowed to near stationary as it stalled over the North Atlantic. Unusually, Kirk stayed a tropical cyclone for several more days before finally becoming an extratropical cyclone, albeit with hurricane-force winds, on October 14th. The strong extratropical remnant of Kirk continued northeast to affect Iceland with gusts of up to 90 miles per hour before they finally dissipated over Norway on October 17th as the system gave its last effects to the country. Hurricane Leslie An elongated trough of low pressure formed just north of the Bahamas with persistent convection on October 23rd. The disturbance began to organize late that day, and the NHC monitored this system for possible development. As it tracked generally northward, the system became Tropical Depression Fourteen on October 24th. Afterwards, the depression rapidly organized and became Tropical Storm Leslie at 15:00 UTC. The east coast of the United States from the Carolinas to Maryland was issued a hurricane watch as Leslie continued to strengthen. Turning slightly eastward towards the Carolinas, Leslie strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, prompting the NHC to issue a hurricane warning for North and South Carolina. On October 28th, Leslie made landfall near Carolina Beach, NC. While a relatively weak storm, Leslie caused heavy damage due to its storm surge which, combined with the high tide at the time, caused severe flooding across the coastline of the states. At least 22 people died from flooding and tornadoes, and the states suffered $5.6 billion USD in damages. Leslie continued inland, remaining a tropical storm for nearly 2 more days before becoming a post-tropical cyclone over Kentucky, dissipating on October 30th. Governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper stated in an interview about the storm that it Leslie was the worst natural disaster in the state's history since Hurricane Floyd in 1999 with damages estimated to have exceeded Floyd in damage. Tropical Storm Michael On November 7th, an area of low pressure formed in the extreme south Caribbean Sea, just northeast of Panama. Subsequently, the NHC designated the low as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. 8 hours later, just before midnight, the disturbance became Tropical Storm Michael. As it tracked slowly westwards, the NHC issued a tropical storm warning for Panama, the first instance any sort of warning has been issued for the region since Hurricane Otto in 2016. On November 9th, Michael made landfall in Panama just 30 miles from the Panama-Costa Rica border, becoming the first tropical cyclone ever to make landfall in Panama. As a result, the population was fairly unprepared. However, damage was relatively minimal at $30 million USD due to the rather weak intensity of the storm. Just before November 10th, Michael crossed into the Pacific basin, still a tropical storm, for the first time since, again, Hurricane Otto in 2016. In the Pacific, Michael would strengthen into a hurricane, but this was not marked as its intensity in the Atlantic, as Michael peaked as a tropical storm in that basin. Storm names The following names were used for storms in the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season. This is the same list used in the 2012 season, with the exception of the name Sara, which replaced Sandy. Retirement In the spring of 2019, at the 41th RA IV hurricane committee, the World Meteorological Organization retired the names Gordon, Isaac, and Leslie from its rotating name lists due to the large amount of damage and/or deaths they caused, and they will not be used again for another Atlantic hurricane. They were replaced with the names Gary, Ivor, and Lucy, respectively, for use in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Category:Future Atlantic Season Category:Future Atlantic Seasons Category:Future hurricane seasons Category:Future hurricane seasons Category:Storms that crossed basins